Oh, the possibilities when you worldbuild in a timeline that diverges around 1900. Well…if we’re trying to alter the territory of the United States 1850 might be a better point of departure, but the 20th century alone has a host of possibilities that would make the final outcome by 2024 rather…different.
First, let’s look at the situation in the 1900s. The United States entered the 20th century with 45 states, five less than we enjoy today (five less stars on the flag!). At the time a significant portion of the contiguous US was still territories: New Mexico and Arizona were already territories on the path to statehood, and they were both admitted in 1912, in more or less the same form they existed circa 1900.
A State of Sequoyah?
Oklahoma, the 47th state, is somewhat more complicated, in as much as it was an amalgam of two territories: the Oklahoma territory proper, which covered what’s now the western and northern parts of the state, and the so-called Indian Territory, which covered what’s now the southern and eastern parts of the state. This territory was intended to be a Native American domain (hence why the area even now has a substantial indigenous population), but ideas of admitting it as a state date back to well before 1900. Congress, however, did not want two additional western states at this time, so a compromise was struck where in 1907 it was incorporated into the new state of Oklahoma. If things had shaken out differently, the then-active proposal to admit it as the State of Sequoyah would have been adopted, and we would have ended up with 49 contiguous states by 1912, rather than 48.
Hawaii, Alaska…and second Alaska?
Even leaving that aside, there are of course the non-contiguous parts of the United States. Alaska and Hawaii were the obvious candidates for statehood among these territories, and in real life in 1959 they were both admitted, bringing the count of states up to 50. In my timeline I envisage both of these states are admitted much earlier (proposals to admit Alaska date back at least to the gold-rush years; ditto for Hawaii upon annexation), since frontier development continues apace much faster, possibly helped along by an indigenous cultural renaissance more broadly (Washington state renamed itself Tacoma circa 1940, and that’s just the beginning of restoring indigenous nomenclature in this universe). Of course in Hawaii this leads not only to greater interest in statehood, but also greater separatist movements aiming to restore the monarchy. But in any event we could easily get up to 50 states by 1940, in more or less their present-day configuration.
…Or perhaps not. There were proposals to split the panhandle, centered on Juneau and Sitka, off from the rest of Alaska as its own state, presumably retaining the rest of Alaska as a territory which could be admitted (in whole or in part) later. In this way you could have at least two states in what’s now Alaska, quite possibly more. Imagine southeast Alaska being its own state, then another state encompassing the rest of the Pacific coastal realm, then another state northward of Denali covering the Interior and North Slope. Or some such. There could potentially be even more states formed from the Alaska territory, but just this arrangement would bring the count up to three. Alaska is a vast realm; even dividing it into six states of equal area would leave each piece comparable in size to Nevada or New Mexico (themselves rather big).
But the prevailing mindset seems to have been to keep it intact and admit it in one swift stroke; internal governance could certainly be fascinating in a timeline where political creativity and respect for the indigenous population both loom much larger, but it may in this timeline be just one state.
Spoils from Spain, among Others…
There are yet more possibilities for new states, however. Puerto Rico is perhaps the most obvious; admission as a state could have occurred around the same time as Alaska or Hawaii. Alternatively, it could have been spun off as an independent country, much like the Philippines were.
From a 1900 point of divergence it’s worth noting that the Philippines were United States territory, and thus could perhaps have been admitted as one or (more likely) multiple states. But the archipelago is likely too far, too big, and too alien to the rest of the United States to ever be successfully integrated; an arrangement of independence with a close-knit alliance, much like in real life, would seem to be the most fruitful for US interests.
The smaller islands might be more promising. The United States Virgin Islands perhaps could become a state in real life, but until the Great War they were the Danish West Indies, and without the pressures of the war it’s likely Denmark would retain the islands. Thus they would not be a US territory. There are still plenty of little islands out there, though, even if we confine ourselves to places that were already US territory in 1900.
Effective 1899, as a result of the Spanish-American War, the United States acquired Guam from Spain, which the US still retain to this day as a territory. A path to statehood seems very realistic in some other timeline, and perhaps it’s represented on the US flag today in my universe.
More Pacific Island States?
Another prospect would be American Samoa, which in 1900 became a territory of the United States. Integrating the area more tightly into the United States would certainly be realistic, with the obvious pathway being Samoa’s admission as yet another state. Some wrinkles are that without the World Wars in this timeline western Samoa remains a German colony, and it’s entirely possible that an indigenous cultural revival might spur a unification of western and eastern Samoa at some point, rather than integration of the eastern part alone as a state of the US.
The last piece of the puzzle is “the United States Minor Outlying Islands”, which aren’t part of any of these territories but nevertheless were part of the United States during this period. If a program for colonization (such as what I outline here) reaches science-fictional proportions, it’s entirely possible these territories would become developed and even populated significantly, making it much more sensible to admit these territories into statehood. The main part of the Minor Outlying Islands are in more or less the same region of the Pacific Ocean, so admission as one state (perhaps with an internally federated political structure) would make sense.
These territories specifically consist of Wake Island, Midway Atoll, Johnston Atoll, Kingman Reef, Palmyra Atoll, Howland Island, Baker Island, Jarvis Island, and Navassa Island. Navassa Island is in the Caribbean, so it would make little sense to lump it in with the rest of them, but the remaining islands could be put on a path to statehood as perhaps the most unusual addition to the country yet, at some point later in the 20th century.
What this new state would be called is an interesting question. “Pacifica” would perhaps be the most obvious name, but blah. “Oceania”, “Pelagia”, or “Thalassa” would have a classical association, but they don’t quite make it either. A Hawaiian name, however, might be perfect: as it was the last effort to colonize this region in the 1930s made heavy use of ethnic Hawaiians, many of whom would presumably speak the Hawaiian language. A high work of literature that catches fire in popular culture and uses some poetic romantic Hawaiian name for this frontier can’t be ruled out.
So where are we up to now? With the 48 states we know, plus Alaska and Hawaii, as in real life, plus Samoa, Guam, and the Pacific Minor Outlying Islands, we have 53 states. Woo. Sequoyah would make for 54, and Puerto Rico would make 55, assuming it’s kept as part of the US.
Into the Caribbean…
What other territories might be out there? The District of Columbia is often proposed for statehood, but in a timeline like this the most that would likely happen is a retrocession of some portion of the territory to Maryland, or perhaps an arrangement where DC residents can be counted as Marylanders for electoral purposes. Which might be more interesting anyway.
An underrated possibility is the Corn Islands: a small island chain in the Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua, a 99-year lease for the United States was negotiated starting in 1914, where Nicaraguan sovereignty would still apply but the US maintained the right to use the area. In real life this never amounted to much and the islands were ceded back to full Nicaraguan control in 1970. A leasehold is a poor basis for statehood, though, so at best this place would likely be an organized and settled territory…unless a permanent handover is negotiated at some later date.
The Panama Canal Zone, on the other hand, was a permanent concession: starting in 1904, the United States had the use, occupation, and control of a zone of land and land underwater for the construction, maintenance, operation, sanitation, and protection of the canal. Admittedly making this area into a state might have been legally sketchy under the terms of the treaty, but if the US wanted it badly enough it could probably have happened. It helps considerably that the US was under no obligation to ever hand over the territory; the abolition of the canal zone in 1979 did not have to happen.
Serranilla Bank and Bajo Nuevo Bank, although controlled by Colombia now, are still technically claimed by the United States pursuant to the Guano Islands Act, and if a US administration had acted before Colombia moved in and established lighthouses and infrastructure there (which only happened starting in the 1960s in real life) they could have become United States territory. Like Navassa Island these areas are in the Caribbean Sea (ditto for the Corn Islands and the Canal Zone). The Swan Islands used to be United States territory and were even actively used as such but were ceded to Honduras in the 1970s.
Assembling these scattered Caribbean island territories into some kind of a state can’t be ruled out. There’s also the Guantanamo Bay naval base, which is land leased to the US by Cuba (basically under duress, but still…) for the purposes of a naval station, which is a relatively substantial area.
For that matter, Cuba itself was also a US territory as of 1900, though it was spun off as an independent country within a few years (minus “leases” such as Guantanamo). Again, incorporation as a state can’t be ruled out, though it seems unlikely.
Further Afield?
Last and perhaps least, according to Wikipedia anyway, there was the American concession in Tianjin (yes, in China), which was technically still active as of 1900, though very much moribund as far as an area of active use is concerned. The survival, much less expansion, of such a district into something like an American Hong Kong seems very unlikely. But on the flip side, similar territories overseas can’t be ruled out; imagine something like a latter-day “charter city” being placed under American administration, under American law, or being declared an American protectorate for whatever reason at some point later in the 20th century.
But a path to statehood seems unlikely for such an arrangement.
Still, we could be pushing 60 states in even a very conservative sort of territorial expansion, which is utterly fascinating. The US flag might look rather different in my alternate history…maybe I should explore that sometime…